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Currency [0]/Explanatory TextG5Explanatory Text %0 : Followed Hyperlink 1Good;Good  a%2 Heading 1G Heading 1 I}%O3 Heading 2G Heading 2 I}%?4 Heading 3G Heading 3 I}%235 Heading 49 Heading 4 I}%6( Hyperlink 7InputuInput ̙ ??v% 8 Linked CellK Linked Cell }% 9NeutralANeutral  e%"Normal :Noteb Note   ;OutputwOutput  ???%????????? ???<$Percent =Title1Title I}% >TotalMTotal %OO? Warning Text? Warning Text %XTableStyleMedium9PivotStyleLight168 ``i̜̙3f3333f3ffff333ff333f33f33BBB\`?JProgram SettingsMa YieldCurves{k Assumptions CalcScen Scenarios" C3Factor InitC3 CalcC3% BondNormals;,.# BondOutFolder:* CSVBondFileNames;,., CSVFilesByMaturity;!*&CSVIncludeHeader:$CSVOutputStyle:" CSVPrecision: CSVTarget:%CustomScenarios: ! CustomStart:3%ExcelSpacerRows: Frequency: Generate12 Generate50)GenerateBondIndices: GenerateCustom InitC3.InitC3. InitialTreasuryCurve; " OutputTarget: Std12; Std50;Azr8!@3 A@@  ia,Initial Treasury Yield Curve: Coupon Paying FiftyTwelveStandard ScenariosNumber of Custom Scenarios: !Custom List of Scenario Numbers: Scenario Orig Scen#Year3-Month6-Month1-Year2-Year3-Year5-Year7-Year10-Year20-Year30-Year!Which set of scenarios were used?"Standard 12" = 1"Standard 50" = 2"What is the projection date (EOM)?"On what basis are the projections?"Calendar Year" = 2<(if "Calendar Year", the first fractional year is discarded)#Beginning Statutory Reserve Level: Tax Rate: 0Sample Calculation of C-3 Factor for Scenario 1:Discount Loading: 1-yr Treasury Rates:U(First value is needed to discount any fraction of a year if "Calendar Year" is used)After-tax Dsct Factors: PV(Surplus): C3-Factor:7= -Min(PV(Surplus)) / Beginning Statutory Reserve LevelPrelim. RBC C-3 Factor: [*** Enter statutory surplus values for 12 or 50 scenarios, for all years of your projectionMax. 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Do not delete or modify.<Wi]~~  <h XPP?i]4@h ZI ԧu$B` ]<^Chris Stiefeling: This cell is required for the program to operate. Do not delete or modify.<Wi]~~  <i XPP? ]4@i ZI p5qBI64E ]<^Chris Stiefeling: This cell is required for the program to operate. Do not delete or modify.<Wi]~~  <Pi XPP? ]4@Pi WI 44-aH@^:= Z<[Chris Stiefeling: Do not move, delete or modify this cell. It is required by the program.<W[Z%Chris StiefelingoChris StiefelingoChris Stiefelingo Chris Stiefelingo>@isjs  7 Sheet4ggD  cbi  dMbP?_*+%&?'?(?)?"??de&U} I*}  } m       [ \ A"^@  AA"@  AA"@  AA ^ Z ] @P@Lj?Aǘ?k g?Mt?~ @9yY? @Q F%u?~ @0L F%?Q?m4@?9yY? @RV-?z6>W?Af?GW?Q|a?tub? @SHPsג?:pΈҞ??ܥ?乾?Pkw?,? @TͪՖ?8gDio?I.!?QMI? ?HŽ? @U sF? ;On? fj+? [B>٬? ò? >x? @V 镢? 1w-!? w-!l? }"O? jq? 8fٓ? @W 3? =yX? ͪզ? ˺,D? HP? Vc#? @X ' ? HP? 0*D? N g?  ? ՏM#? @Y z6?~ @ EԨ? M(D? jt? EԨ?nvvzzzzzzz E.  (  ~  <j XPP?i]4@j @H CM\2b N<OGHancock: Decimal. 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"?? ? @  @ (@ H@P@ X@ `@p@ "x@@ @ @ @ @ AA A  A (A F@A  A1A&DAA  A  FA@BHBPB  %XB hB xBBB %B BBB  B B B'B  NC 0C 28C "$pCCCCCCCCCCCCCC  D D0D8D@DHDPDXD`D D7xD 2'D $ D  E &0E D,XE "E lBE  8F HF hF 4"F F>7F |^G GG"GGG B GGGGHH  H 0(HHH PH `HhH$xHH$HHH $H $I ":0I XIhI $pI$I$I'II":J (J0J 8J">@JhJ pJ B  xJ JJ J JJ:J K (K @K 8HKB KK  8K&'K L L8LPL  hLpLLLLLLL M M 0M8M "@M (hM"  MM  M$M  MN  N L8N NNN  $NOO   O 8OHO`OxO  6OOO *O" PP  0P$@P hP PJP P Q Q8Q )PQpQ )xQQ Q  Q,&QQQ QR(R $5@RhR "5pRR R  RR R $5R S "5S @S HSXS`S hS xS DS"  SS  S$T ,(TXTpT  TT :TT U$ UHU"PUxU U U  U  UUU U V $V@V "HVpV xV VV V 0]xD Note: Modifications made by Chris Stiefeling (Mercer Oliver Wyman)\Ex$ are tagged by 'CS MOW Modification'Rx" Last Modification date 2005-09-28/ General Modifications made by Chris StiefelingeE * Removed fixed cell addresses and offsets in favor of named ranges.H This will improve the workbook's ability to tolerate data being moved- or rows/columns being inserted or deleted.G * Removed select and activate statements as they are not necessary and% cause the selected cell to change.E * Rewrote output logic to improve efficiency and readability of code8 * Replaced all instances of integer data type with longO * Store the initial treasury curve in an array instead of individual variables. Constants needed for random number generator]]@]]9%.>h]8 (]P]n]=1>x]8]] Number of points generateds ] ]]F CS MOW Modification - I've added a more robust inverse normal routineF setting this flag to true will utilize the old inverse normal routine]D CS MOW Modification - Inverts the specified uniform number based ons  the UseOldNormals flagh] 0s  4 8%:'6s  6K)u@ GK)u@'6j 6K)u@ GK)u@'6js d 4$<'6k 6'2iV CS MOW Modification - Modified this routine to take in the scenario seeds to generate? vScenarioList should be a 2D variant array (n rows x 1 column)]@] This version of CalcScen generates yieldcurves based on interpolation from the forward rates]X ]p]0h] ]8]p]]0H`]x ]0H]`x] 8]P^@]0H`]x) CS MOW Modification - Adds some settings] ] 0 ]H ` ]x  ]  ]  0 H @] *`  , ]  ] H  ]  ]( @ X p s ]   ]    0 H ` ]x   ]  ] ] ]'s:\actuarial\actres\irategen\errors.tmp8]Ph]]]7 Ensures that we can access all ranges in this workbook B@s K EnableCancelKey ensures we get to wrap up the process on esc or ctrl-breaks F  8( @' Frequency 8%'   G'js # Translate mode to periods per years  ' e'dP 'k@> CS MOW Modification - Incorporate bond returns into generatorGenerateBondIndices$%"X,'`@ s  Initialize bond parameterss & 1:Money Market; 2:USITGVT; 3:USLTCORP+F+F+s WSUU?+FWSUU?+FWSUU?+y):r?+FoӟHY?+FK8|?+VUL?+F丶d4 @+Fcp@@+En?+F;Ҫ?+F33?+9 Need extra random number files for bond index generation BondNormals$'~ Set up file readers. $X B$ $X B$ $X B$ k9 CS MOW Modification - Allow for different output formats OutputTarget 8%' y  a2:iv65536 Scenarios$&%B@(ExcelSpacerRows 8%' @d0 Support writing to matrix filesCSVOutputStyle$%"X ' CSVPrecision$X '. y  Single output filey  CSVTarget 8%' $*'CSVIncludeHeader$m// Scenario,Orig Scen#,Year,Period,3-Month,6-Month,1-Year,2-Year,3-Year,5-Year,7-Year,10-Year,20-Year,30-Year' G ,MONEY,ITGVT,LTCORP 'j  kp dh  Set up multiple output files CSVTarget 8%$,'y   $.\G \ 'jy CSVFilesByMaturity$'  *y   $ $* +  o@CSVBondFileNames$'  ,y   $ $* + y k k k  G'jy E CS MOW Modification - Turning screen updating off can be problematicF if routine stops running or is cancelled. We'll make some changes soA that performance will not be greatly affected by screenupdating.# Application.ScreenUpdating = Falsey # Application.Calculation = xlManualy * Base seed for the random number generator'F< CS MOW Modification - use the value passed in by the callero@ ' number of scenarios to project B' Initially 0y ' Scenarios$&.y A2 %. D$'y    d  k k / Inputs to generate the interest rate scenarios' number of years to project over ' prjmode = 12 for monthly  '' Y set lowdis equal to "True" if scenarios are to be generated using low discrepancy points' 0 set use_T to "True" if using the T distribution'8 the degrees of freedom parameter for the T distribution'G set to "True" if the variance of (ST - LT) is assumed to be a constant7 CS MOW Modification - Replaces limit of 200 scenarios      G 4 BToo many scenarios to write to Excel. Try writing to file instead. 0B2j Ny  R0y I CS MOW Modification - Since each scenario is independent there is reallyP no reason to keep all scenarios in memory. We can simply generate each scenario and write it out as we go.y L I've moved the redim into the for loop to ensure that we don't accidentallyy ! persist values between scenarios ReDim rate(noscen, numb + 1, 10)$ReDim annrate(noscen, noyrs + 1, 10)*ReDim quartrate(noscen, noyrs * 4 + 1, 10))ReDim monrate(noscen, noyrs * 12 + 1, 10)!ReDim annltvar(noscen, noyrs + 1)ReDim diff(noscen, numb + 1)y "ReDim annratvar(noscen, noyrs + 1) *Py  *py  *y  * *y  *y * Input the Appropriate Correlation Factors{Gz?'_ Correlation between ln. of the LT rate and the ln. of the difference of the ST and the LT rateffffff?'U Correlation between the monthly var. of ln(LT) and the monthly variance of (ST - LT)p@( Set up the initial Treasury Yield CurveInitialTreasuryCurve 8%'^ ^ d- ^$6'^6 Turn it into a rowk@$^'d  $^'p+Z p$8'#- The initial log of the 20-year interest rate d p 'z#9 The initial difference of the 1-year to the 20-year rateׁ@'# The initial variance of ln(LT)ꑫB4o?$8'# The initial variance of (ST-LT)@ These constants are for the forward rate interpolation program:?+?+++r +++m + + ++++&q?+t?+m#A?+KǦi?+M?+'TΔ?+fb9z? +$^ ?+F k?+Eq? +[q?+ is?+?S> +DdL#,ٚu2?+o&?+c@Ua@j?+Å -?+̈q?+xy?+1}?+\xo?+ + + +k? +P_%? +q? +x?'M(?'P?' Begin Scenario Loop   CS MOW ModificationDdL, State/output variables for current scenarioM Redim with each iteration to prevent carryover of values from prior scenario   *H   *J@   *\h    *Z  L  v  x     ,k CS MOW Modification|; Update Seed value - scenario number now passed as an input F $@  'Generating Scenario    8(:A@] Initialize variables -- Sub (9) refers to the long-term rate, sub (3) to the short-term rate $< +H $< +J $< +\ $< +Z $<+L z+v $H$v +H$H+J8L$H+\ro$H+Zon $<+x'% Generate/select monthly random draws  Z Generate the uniform random numbers on [0,1] needed to produce the mthly rates and diffs   LowDisc$>%" +N  LowDisc$>%" +N  'd $@ +N $@ +NkP +'$ Generate/select annual random draws  m Generate the uniform random numbers on [0,1] needed to produce the annual variances of ln(LT) and (ST - LT)   LowDisc$>%" +R  LowDisc$>%" +R  'd $@ +R $@ +Rk  $H'V$H'X| ' ' z'| ' Begin Projecting yearsi  O Formulas to calculate the variance of ln(LT) and of the difference of ST - LT5 CS MOW Modification - Update inverse normal function $R$2'T 333333@ h|?5?  zG? T ' $<  +L T't5 CS MOW Modification - Update inverse normal function $R$2'T (\@ MbX?  {Gz?  t  ? T  ' G 'j $<  +x ' ' Project Periods CS MOW ModificationN Changed variable name from 'l' to 'p' to avoid confusion with numeral one (1)( (Been there done that...tough to debug)      '7 Formulas to calculate the ln(LT) and the diff of ST-LT5 CS MOW Modification - Update inverse normal function $N$2'T a2U0*s? S㥛İ?$8  zG? |/$?  $< T ' $<  +H T't  $N? $N  8%B'Td $N   8%B'Tkh TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj|d 5 CS MOW Modification - Update inverse normal function $N$2'Tk |/$? |/$?  iUMu/? S㥛İ?$8  $<  t  ? T  '~ ~  +v  $v  $H  +H  $HMbp?  $H?  +H  'v k@ +'   V  $H 'V X  $H 'Xd V  $H 'V X  $H 'Xk kx ' ~'| J Calculate the "appropriate" monthly, quarterly, and annual rate using the- arithmetic average and the "trapezoid" rule.  V  +J  $H'V X  +Jh  $H'XkH J Use regression equations to fill in the rest of the (annual) yield curve       $H  $H   +Z $H  $H  +Z3 use regression equations to find 3 Mos Coupon Rate$@M-? $Zua?  $Z ? r? +Z $ZMb`? G? $Z +ZjG Use function to derive yield curve based on interpolated forward rates !  $Z  $Z         D AD  * monrate(j, ii) = Coupons(ii)Next ii>*Code deleted by SJS**Zk | KT        *   $Z   $Z    $Z   +\  KT  *  +J   $J     $Z  +J q  $J   +Jl sion  End Projecting years* CS MOW Modification - Add bond generation ] 8P]h] 'R $@'V  , $$^'H? +?'J$ Get the next line of random numbers  %X.4 Ensure we haven't gone past current scenario number !Z V G 4 ;Custom scenario numbers must be entered in ascending order. 0B2j !Z Va %\'Px''T      $$Z'N $ H $  $ N H  $ H$^  $P 'L N'H , Accumulate bond returns until output period J L 'J  Are we on an output period?Pro   R  J T +?'J T 'Tk  '   k; CS MOW Modification - Completely restructured output logic Construct header info  $@X  $`' KT Annual    ^ J   Abd q   ^ J  Addp  ^ J   AfkHk@KT Quarterly    ^ \   Ab ?d?    ^ \  Add?  ^ \   Afk?k?KT Monthly    ^ Z   Ab d8?     ^ Z  Add?  ^ Z   Afk>k>n>   End Scenario Loop@ CS MOW Modification - Removed a lot of code dealing with output   Scenarios$&B@H A2 Scenarios$&%B@Hk= V ? This is a bit lazy but the easiest way to close all open files W=k= 8(:  V*@A@h|X=P= 8(:  W0=k(= V  V Handle Esc or Ctrl-Break 0!jG|jError: n 0!p Alo<+Subroutine to interpolate via forward curve  '3]:0yE> ]]]]] ]8]P]h]]]] ' ~  r  t '_;'''''   G $  $ 'cG?'j $x $z r $|  '  *G  $'j +   '      $|'      '               $| '  '     '    +       '  v$ t       D G 7InterpError occurred. f, coupon(1), coupon(YieldPoints) $ *$jxH8k@8  v$ t   ' 8o8]H]a`]]]7 G  'j  '  '   '      '   '      '  $ ' a       '      '   "   +   kp6      '      ' &  (  $ 'a  $ ' $'@   "   + 5z55$ 0 UniformNumGenA@l p5ih5]]'J   J $ 'J     G J $ 'Jj    J 'i42 Returns an arry populated with header information] 2 Create n x 4 array {scenario, seed, year, period}    + A +d++ '      '  +  +  +?  +? ? ? '`i2 Writes data to Excel sheet ! Also moves the range accordingly]x .     ' Drop in the header data   , Write scenario data E Note - the first row is the initial state -- we'll overwrite it with the initial yield curve %.   * , Write the time zero scenario * %. ^' Bond Returns *@ * %.   , ,k`00 Update the range variable to the next blank row   %.o0$ Writes data to comma demimited file]  Data rows    '  *@ Write header elements  $ $ $ $t@  Initial yield curve @  *   *   $^ dh.  $^kH.   *@ ???k-d- Rest of data  *t@  *    $ .$dp-   $ .$ k@-      ,   ,    $ .$d,   $ .$ k, *@k,kx,  o`,= Routes output data to separate matrix files (in .csv format)08] Data rows    ' % Write each maturity to separate file  * $' Initial rate?  $^?4 Note: First element is initial state and is ignored          $ .$d*   $ .$ k`*     Bond Returns    ,  $'         $ .$d)   $ .$ kh) u@  k@)o8)0)] Z* Added by SJS to skip months with forward rate interpolation errors**ZZ* Added by SJS to skip months with forward rate interpolation errors**'Z *@ JSave previously generated coupons in case filling in the yield curve failsZ* Added by SJS to skip months with forward rate interpolation errors**Z  * $ +  Gyj    * $  +Z dhS  * $  +Z For ii = 1 To YieldPoints BadForward = Forwards(ii) < 0z If BadForward And DebugOn Then Print #ErrorFile, i + IndexFix, j, ii, Forwards(ii), Coupons(ii - 1), Coupons(ii), Time()AZ* Added by SJS to skip months with forward rate interpolation errors**ZYIn the case of negative forward rates, set this month's yield curve to last month's curvePBad forward rate in scenario $@$ month  $A@l\ $ ')Forwards(ii) < 0$ ]CAttribute VB_Name = "CalcScen" Option Explicit ' Note: ModificaBs made by Chris Stiefeling (Mercer Oliv Wyman)are @tagged7'@CS MOW U'!&Last  da2005-009-28$'General *1* Remov?fixcell addresses and offsets in favor nd ranges.# Thywiimpr) the workbook'%bility ttolS`cax beB%1rows/columnsinse rtQdele=as ctZ activstmen`asIy not n$ecrar@ndCcaus@d.3ED,chA;Fwr@ output logic6>ef@ienc@ reada?of codeA.Pplac@aMn +n$AXinteFgBHtypRi$th@ngSto*initi%@}tsu3cuHrvekan;rdayst d ividu variablesô CoB Jneed@%fAbom numb#gB B m1 As Lo@= 2L59ia7(141FcI54(773rDoFu&@0.038580247 m2134456ia812CI2841r 74373m343@i)59c*I Bpo=s +eQ+YieldP,10Bon`) Dim g_nCSVPrpecisA$Co - I' G AR m!Lrobuin `cnorm@Gr _inX txtflag1atru!VZutilizjold@Q UseOldN sa-BooleX= Fal~s_tAWspfiuni#XXbason  Pr1cFun`GetCDraw(u #E)G .!If  = T!%The  = Ap .!SInv\(u@A (> 5.364418)en k  < -{E"1aK eXrsec%E@I>fa*){ Ae.T8BNDQN3Mo020Yr5 GuP2QNQGa5CoupFor1D'* AdSJSaaXskipP0s wQHJerrhors*pv? RG5' CO -s soⴏmS,XxequBpC%UrVWriteToExT, nXLSprRЕasМFileq2S@ng4Numa0 avHPerInfoth, rTarge|tR!́Ab Retur@O V x(m Multiple s1sFpuU ss L ev! % naұ"ums(1 To jpaA Pozints) As Integer Dim ddrDelimitedDataReader,ls l.SetxbpM(1 To 3Long@, bpB0 *DoubleK IB14Sigma8 @noscencomp endptpnoyrq"p@rjmodeumbseedUiij k%pccDegFr-om .), nSusP erCol VerSpacing ,dexFix ErrorFil;ENewBoolean, BadForwarB@ Const Name = "s:\actuarialAres\iran\eAs.t8mp"lowdieuse,_T.Fc_va®DST_T@oo_Low:OutputShee€WorksAEnU,oCo$un ' Ensu1 that we can access all ranges in0BwbookThis.AcXtivAaCancelKey, e@g*to wrap upAe proBon esc or ctrl-br$eaOnCb GoFawd: Applicat@ion.EnK= xl7Handl!!= UB"d(v$Lis`t, 1)f=J R"("[q@uency"If (<> 1 And 2 Thz= 1%T,sl'#periods yea  A freCS ElseG2T4Af2bIf!a' CS MOW Modifd. -ApcorpoA` bo@returnAFgene@obWrBRd= CA](* GeAIndi`B").Cells(1a2`-aq PTrue'`i"ttizeCpaBrxters ' 1:MonSMarket; 2:USITG VT; 3@LTCORP)a,:M(2a7cq:= 8Ł0.083b -@0445KB153C070: υ714p8196Ң3.65042761 5.81292939b@! DՁ 36954E523852e82820#R' Nex(tradnu@mber fzsL fIin $H|vAs@1t#"Normals8 }AF^ D@d5=w Ƃ CC1P`.Add(CStr(W)R@er2,R(3E9UC9rn9Algb:fhere@_orbAm at4ToEx+Z(ON"eTar ["SQ&8c7hs("U.4a2:iv658536!>x`nt# nXLerRow " GM' SupI`mpGIr &3"Multip leCSV(2 CLngIpv0tyle\Ig_n`Precis*")$#\F-MKS  33 ske(" 4um Open3%2m( ` IncluxdeH!asLin“// A ,Orig#4,Ym,pn,3B-Yth,6t1-2c3c5cR7c10s2t3s"A SBg  { + ",MONEY,ba,aQPri5#,; '*`:m( 0FolKPTrim:Len(s ) > 0ˆRiXghteE P"\"s 0\Wq$sByMaitTе iYieldPo nab(s(iF(i$+ WiQ5N@e iu5Ȃ q e OQ um t/6  Pjxt $Taa2/(;T< 0)#U0eM)TSscntdng of:fbUicq' if r,?stops runnA}pP`gled. We'make soPch3so'`ma winokt be greatly affected by screenupdating. ' ApplicDon. SU@ = FalseNCalculfHxlManual RBase sesfor the random number generator.b(= 200?CS MOW Modif - uTKvalue pass`incalleQ@noscenKnSarioCoPunt 'Aofens to projHIndexFix"OffseA Initi6y X NewFileTruSOutputShe= Workss("Js")rTargetRang $. ("A2 If DebugOn Th en nErrorEFz(π E* OpJName F@m As #@end4IfED' \InLBceŽinteresttts noyrs@^30"Ę1xyea@w ovprjmodZ12'monthly7@C* AlowdiA 'dt eq@Ł"" iIar7oÀusA pancy8 po@<_T":C !cT tributioEDegD1Ar= 6!deѠes 'fHpar@B 0 ey const_var 0 @i e (STz0LT) (yum' @a " anFta,a' R eplac@limit G{a _(bWriteToExcel A#N* (G* que-+ 1 + nXLSp rRows) > 65000)em l b`sise(vbObd`1, , "Too manw!B". Try a>f!i)ead.~ReDim unif1(1 To˜, @2)l`Doubl"2/e '+Since each&*5ide`o:X 8le`o" sonkeXep 2 memory. We can simp`~jC "%e w-e(M#J,B3@10'annM2 rtP* 4_ M Pltp8 e wf ? `CDu PGss(YieldPL_+RegInt ph.83Mo20LYrm p Mmrwar.dz"* AddN0SJSA)pskip+0g`-i.5522005298 V1408846U6 U00267927 V .409328979623109759 +7+32045 ) 321228330) 68682188(11023746 3069145 R 6073135R9)vHQ10D4944346051477  42275@Guess.0Aw<22BA9@-0.419199 )B 898004065 ' Begin Scenario LoopFor i@ 1 To nos ' CS MOW ModificationState/output vables fcurrpent AA Redim with each iter to prev carryover o flB fromiReD@e(C0umb@ + 1, YieldPoints) As Dou)#ann!Hoyrsquart * 4'mon* 12hlt0 9f &#  c*If bWr:BondReturnsKTrue ThedG*=equencyH 49End8 If#WUpd W SeedK3 tJ nH@Ono@w pass@as an in\E s= b+ vejList(Zi O) u "A(pplg.fusBar""Gen"`ng's" & r+ IndexFDixDoEcs '`itialize ri#p-- Sub (arefe Zkthe long-@nm !V, s 3)oshorNtc c[, BExp(initrt20)gWhdf`WG\e^C[aaE =" (+ $(*3 2h $>B5 +0 k@"3c ' "e/select `thly ndQdraw!}A]j&Q#]V !uniZ "/s on [0,p1] n. 0YoPduceRmdt]^a7 8 (lowdiW)? ran1(j, 2Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k, idz1xB;k`ƒElLse/ UNum(> 9INext jSSP'ual} q]#b??t'ia ncPwln(LT)p*d (STLU ^u2nry!a"'/aag]e208G91%FlaiVO8ECSProjEihyearDDc,()mul@r@BcalctcB%%q%%G eP0ET&es!.n($|$inpseprm3func 4norm`GetNalDPR(H2F2)6G - 2.40. 347 *3eveS+59 MdA 4(aG,j"qe1! 3.@q271640(cor(I2 + - ^A^^ (0.p* Dconst_`)B@=@a#3F r3"%' 0 Pe=dnF+hangͶed variable name from 'l' to 'p0avoid confusion with numeral one (1) ' (Been there d:that...toughdebug`For p = 1 To prjmodeL cc2 * (k - 1)0 + p ' AHmulasbcHalc te ln(LT) anddiff of ST-LTKCS MOW Moicatz@- Upda)i nversormfunc$r4n]GetNDraw(unif1(cc, 2) ltratprev- 0.00 48} Log(! 655)0.,21l+105Exp(lty /7LUte#U1, 9)  #' If use_@T Then >q<)5 -Appl_.TInv P1), DegF@reedomH+ ElsN(1f1)IfL7(> 5.364418)B7 4E< -W9' {/xWO# "'stBR=zevBZ4yaJb'Vc^024%ZEa^ATT[(corw FU+:^`^ @g c*2Fa$a`cg e3! +@ *i'__{_ *s*f25 _To o_Low@fSTц+ 1Ev4A` v(b2cY aagte20"q1k1` O{=+ M(p3K,+7-!SZ~=㽧AI !NNxext| "@appropte" monthly, quarterAaannuA!ingG Pthmetics"ipezP" rule.UuO$1rnnkf i4uO%P,i91!o1j'* Add0@by SJSs(kip#sfo rward@ iBnpola"e rrors** &S bRiously gen5q upons cBa`filliAB yiel@urvails%Yii%YaPFo PІCo(ii1Mu"(ii !eu' U@regresҧe`-Z tq(.)w%jq=g21;13E 1}R#jt _Njfb)'r*{3@1'O@a(fipH3s 3 R@A .1785!x2616qgbz04563hep?(Xd00b9R0.5 z>3T1 deri..b0d5697.Call I8Via 1!:(Du0s, 99, _G MuReg,b p3Mo20YrOGu,bh :q0On, BE!FFile L LthLe8L'ISIJ0`negatz, setgisqpth'sjLptcMBadY@1/a0QoG#12݊5m%Bmk? 0/ k" (e /cM%kc' Projecting year¤CS MOW Modific ation`BAd`o{gene,  CIf b@WriteBReturns Dim dRLast As DoubdCumul@ ve* Curre nt )vNorPmalsaVant?OutFreqLong Ped) n$ men 2\f uencyy = ܡ%A[kR('` Initial ve(`\bpM(k1k|1h`. d`E ' Get the nline ofndom numbe#Hag Sddrdds.pItem yEnsure we haven't gopa"cc`'`.LbN2 > .RhCall 0h.Raise(vbOb/Ri:, "Cust t mp be 'erv aAd3ord0er."h Do Until \ =^ 7 f,=r0Read;oLoop)bcc8Mn/= H'afbnoy QpPprjm$W8=Fbcc, ( d<=B0 R-+`KP)`FpbpB1T4>-DibpSigmBaSqr()5( H 8[@ ' ADccJe bPr eNuRoutput pE6 ~1p(1$a.2Yan ?1\ 8K0YQ1s)C#, C k f D (+ } 2i3 R-@m0oao#' nnCompaly restruc?logicS h:epnfovHI14Cre p#ArrayCLng, fee@k:?!/C]P+nnxualS1!zToExcel R|p(rTardgewng , v9i, t@ , & XLSpacerRows/ V MultiCSVs@F>e- _L (n@c@  c ^s ( P,\ ooToMatriles(na _nax[ @50 #a' QerlR?#'%ip%(ĶrTargetRange, vHeaderInfo`Initia lCurvlqu@artrat(bWriteBondReturns, nXLSpacerRows) Else If MultipleCSVs = Fa( Then - Call {Scenario$To2(nFi`leNumDZ  [DMatrixCs(naYiXeldIvnaKnd E Case 3' Mon0thly FbToExcel_^B (gmon,d0ZY!cu,!JSelectaNext i! 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L t dX(lt 5lxlt.TMX@( M -T( J 5(5lxlt.TMX@( M -T( K 5( tfX tdLlt5lxlt .TMX@( M -T( J 5(5lxlt .TMX@( M -T( K 5( tfLH xfh.C0$ T(h0 8  CrU  (`a +(`q/x`8))Ii k++(kkk+++kk#((`)A/,!`)Yq//8I`((((Pq`)Qy =//k#k(D`1)Qy&//k#kH`IQyif/k#fkndp p#xMEP(6 "LL <0 X`8k `@l in `8k `@l aH `k `@l `h d8%X%p xH0>@`T @D @@ @0   @ @ @ (@>@\ @L @H @@@8 >lThs@\ @L @H ee@8 X@t Modio`X]< Pass the scenario numbers through to the generation routine B@Std50$'@fset @A>Co] < Pass the scenario numbers through to the generation routine B@4CustomScenarios$. %"X ' CustomStart$.  %'@ @A> selecorAttribute VB_Name = "ButtonClicks" Opti@on ExpDit Pub, Sub Generate12() Dim vScenarioList As Vant F' Pass the s) numberrough tog^tine@ThisWorkbook.Apctiv y= Range("@Std12"Calls( 1Endov50Mv v50HvC ustom<, BnSCoun~Long, rbhUSetC/yE)= CLng(r.Cells(1, 1)ŠtartMr.Resizq@%"]@ rKa@]؋40>@leme]{TW @se att]0] ^vc@ name]駱HP@8anguag]x~*@Patio]J ?hment]$? due]\p4@nsta]:p,e@2- a]M@ c]?\@ated p]ҟW? .i  ` \ `X`0T`P`L +`  PiL T+*x`XkX \i 8 ` i)the %i on fxH%Xx`H0`*z l '% 4n0 @h @@X @T  @P %@hL Q@H @D (@ 4 @8$ f@P :@ l@ 1@ `x HX X 8`6l pH l p@H NX *@D @@  \@< X  @ , @(  @@ @p @ @   ?t t3p XPh(@ h ( H P ` `<tׁp H ꑫB4t+1C4pFk@;->q@ rKa@@ d ؋40>{TW @0h X 8 "8  4` (@Xp  0H`x      ,*E@  p . h .x  x .""x $B     02H h x   DB      F ` Dh B   85cB(7.784894002r4Y9EoA)-0.322396458)136eZ.75B48+Bic)-J4973253934373*4.374Z14146 Z93816398487@Gd695709 46d4671290700hda2.44513413714d3.7P5440P14 "A!'[brea`k-poi['p_lowE0.`+25 high 1 - aa work var iablebDim q, r+If argu ml of @boundsafiuorA p <= 0 Or p >= 1@rr.RbgRxer regqSqr(-2 * Log(p) *(S*+ c2)q 3&4&5&6) / _ a Ccdf*dfdf1Eldse"p_3n- '_Lp ;0.B( @5=`` E*+ ara"""( b b b b $Ay?up<\=-4(?=@ r  + nd If Epe|@ranspop2a( 2D7nhrrTayTA(vSourceQ9Va;ntI!,dnb2.Re2(?o " TװA Fi9CӁ qjv s d(j, i)(i, j@ Next ji1k#' VBA vides a useRs RN messag0f it can't ope fileO$InДSt\m(qoT@ rKa@oT؋40>oT{TW @o\0B@H *  'lpYou must ensure that the Initial Treasury Yield Curve in the sheet "Assumptions" is the same as the one used to create the scenarios used to generate the surplus values. After doing this, go back to the sheet "C3Factor" and click the "Calculate RBC C-3 Factor" button again.'"Verification of user inputs'$ "  $$l',k & . CalcC3.CalcC3 8B@0A@hko.Attribute VB_Name = "Ini@tC3" SHub P()LStylvbYesNoCancel + vbExclamationDefaultButton2 Msgs theial Treasury Yield Curve in#sheet ""@AssumpXs,""aIone used t8o cM`scenarios@generaurplus va lues?xTitl"VerificdofrIputsResponse1gjBox(, , #If vbNo ThePn Sns(n).Sele ctOKOn  R( 0 $@$h$$$ ( 40hpDLkp#wxME(<<< <8LPL`L"L&L(LL 2  @BLL@DLL`FL HLL J%" L0P Nh0uy P`P Rhuy `T`V`X Z8uy   \p @X 4 vy ```b`d`fx`h`j`l`n`p`r`t vwy  x 8wy `z`|`~``````````` P   P8```  5k ` ` ` ``?`?`th``````6````````` ` @L`  `  ` `  % 8 z   :8 N@  <p Pz X  > pz   @ z  `B`D`F`H`J`L`N`P`R T pz   V( z   X` z H `Z \ z  `^``   8 h       @ `      @ h    LL(L xL$L8`(Px  N  .  >P     ( (0 ,X  6 *   0 8  @ P X h p   6 . 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Further cleanup is left as an exercise to the interested reader ;-)lp]Hv CalcC3 generates one-year rates in the same manner as CalcScen and uses these rates in the calculation of C-3 factors]`y ]x]8p]y ]@x]](@Xp](]@Xp]]0H`]x  ]Xp ]]](@Xpr x]]  0 H ` ]x   ]  c] ]  as]'s:\actuarial\actres\irategen\errors.tmp8 ]P h  ] ] ]  @ x  ]   0 H ]` x    ] 0 h   ] 7 Ensures that we can access all ranges in this workbook B@K EnableCancelKey ensures we get to wrap up the process on esc or ctrl-breakF  8(C3Factor$>%"'BC3Factor$>%"'R R$b'DC3Factor$>%"'F C3Factor$>%"'LC3Factor$>%"'N?'P B- Get the appropriate list of scenario numbersKTStd12$'`KTStd50$'`KTCustomScenarios$%"X  CustomStart$%'`nC3Factor$>B@H(Mode = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(1, 9)8If (Mode <> 1 And Mode <> 2 And Mode <> 3) Then Mode = 1Sheets("Scenarios").SelectRange("a2:es16384").SelectSelection.ClearContentsRange("a2").Select"Application.ScreenUpdating = False"Application.Calculation = xlManual% Seed for the random number generator'F `'! number of scenarios to project#If (noscen > 200) Then noscen = 200 B'')Set OutputSheet = Worksheets("Scenarios") D$'z    d  kxkp/ Inputs to generate the interest rate scenarios' number of years to project over ' prjmode = 12 for monthly  'llowdis = False ' set lowdis equal to "True" if scenarios are to be generated using low discrepancy pointsX@Cuse_T = False ' set use_T to "True" if using the T distributionz '8 the degrees of freedom parameter for the T distribution'G set to "True" if the variance of (ST - LT) is assumed to be a constant N R0   H`z $ReDim annrate(noscen, noyrs + 1, 10)z *ReDim quartrate(noscen, noyrs * 4 + 1, 10)    Z!ReDim annltvar(noscen, noyrs + 1)   v"ReDim annratvar(noscen, noyrs + 1)    8 X x* Input the Appropriate Correlation Factors{Gz?'_ Correlation between ln. of the LT rate and the ln. of the difference of the ST and the LT rateffffff?'U Correlation between the monthly var. of ln(LT) and the monthly variance of (ST - LT)( Set up the initial Treasury Yield Curve+Month_3 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(2, 4)+Month_6 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(3, 4)*Year_1 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(4, 4)InitialTreasuryCurve$%"!d'd*Year_2 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(5, 4)*Year_3 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(6, 4)*Year_5 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(7, 4)*Year_7 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(8, 4)+Year_10 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(9, 4),Year_20 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(10, 4) InitialTreasuryCurve$%"!d'p,Year_30 = Sheets("Assumptions").Cells(11, 4) p$8'!- The initial log of the 20-year interest rate d p 'z!9 The initial difference of the 1-year to the 20-year rateׁ@'! The initial variance of ln(LT)ꑫB4o?$8'! The initial variance of (ST-LT)@ These constants are for the forward rate interpolation program:?+?++++++ + + ++N++&q?+t?+m#A?+KǦi?+M?+'TΔ?+fb9z? +$^ ?+F k?+Eq? +[q?+ is?+?S> +#,ٚu2?+o&?+ c@Ua@j?+Å -?+̈q?+xy?+1}?+\xo?+ + + +k? +P_%? +q? +x?'M(?'P?'   F $`  'About to begin Scenario    8(:A@] Initialize variables -- Sub (9) refers to the long-term rate, sub (3) to the short-term rate $<  +H annrate(i, 1, 9) = Exp(initrt20)"quartrate(i, 1, 9) = Exp(initrt20) $<  +Zannltvar(i, 1) = Exp(initltvar) z +v  $H $v +H annrate(i, 1, 3) = rate(i, 1, 3)"quartrate(i, 1, 3) = rate(i, 1, 3) $H +Z !annratvar(i, 1) = Exp(initratvar)'  Z Generate the uniform random numbers on [0,1] needed to produce the mthly rates and diffs If (lowdis) Then6 unifran1(j, 2) = Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k, i): unifran1(j, 1) = Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k + 1, i) k = k + 2 Else $@ +N $@ +N End If   Em Generate the uniform random numbers on [0,1] needed to produce the annual variances of ln(LT) and (ST - LT) If (lowdis) Then6 unifran2(j, 2) = Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k, i): unifran2(j, 1) = Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k + 1, i) k = k + 2 Else $@ +R $@ +R End If averagerate20 = rate(i, 1, 9)averagerate1 = rate(i, 1, 3) ' ' z'| '  O Formulas to calculate the variance of ln(LT) and of the difference of ST - LT $R 8%:'T TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj 333333@ h|?5?  zG? T '# annltvar(i, k + 1) = Exp(ltvar) T't $R 8%:'T TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj1M TK)u@ GK)u@'Tjtur (\@ MbX?  {Gz?  t  ? T  ' G 'j% annratvar(i, k + 1) = Exp(ratvar) ' ' 6    6 '7 Formulas to calculate the ln(LT) and the diff of ST-LTpr $N 8%:'T TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj a2U0*s? S㥛İ?$8  zG? |/$?  $< T ' $<   +Ht T't If use_T Then& If unifran1(cc, 1) < 0.5 ThenD randnorm = -Application.TInv(unifran1(cc, 1), DegFreedom) ElseI randnorm = Application.TInv((1 - unifran1(cc, 1)), DegFreedom) End If Else+ $N 8%:'T End If TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj+ TK)u@ GK)u@'Tj+ |/$? |/$?  iUMu/? S㥛İ?$8  $<  t  ? T  '~ ~   +v   $v   $H   +H   $HMbp? Mo   $H?   +Henar& ST_Too_Low = ST_Too_Low + 1prevkPIf Mode = 1 ThenriP If (l <> 12) Then averagerate20 = averagerate20 + 2 * rate(i, cc + 1, 9)N If (l <> 12) Then averagerate1 = averagerate1 + 2 * rate(i, cc + 1, 3) K If (l = 12) Then averagerate20 = averagerate20 + rate(i, cc + 1, 9)I If (l = 12) Then averagerate1 = averagerate1 + rate(i, cc + 1, 3)End Ifcena ' ~'| 6n inpuJ Calculate the "appropriate" monthly, quarterly, and annual rate using the- arithmetic average and the "trapezoid" rule.9) rIf Mode = 1 Then r, annrate(i, k + 1, 9) = averagerate20 / 24% averagerate20 = rate(i, cc + 1, 9)+ annrate(i, k + 1, 3) = averagerate1 / 24$ averagerate1 = rate(i, cc + 1, 3)End IfJ Use regression equations to fill in the rest of the (annual) yield curve      lect m   $H   $H    +Zni  $H   $H   +Zfs3 use regression equations to find 3 Mos Coupon Rate$@M-?  $Zua?   $Z ? r?  +ZN  $ZMb`? G?  $Z  +ZjraG Use function to derive yield curve based on interpolated forward rates [ %   $Z   $Z         D AD%"   $ '>  DG      $  $ $$Fj $   +Z'  | Select Case Mode Case 20 For j = 4 * (k - 1) + 2 To 4 * (k - 1) + 5  For n = 1 To 10an quartrate(i, j, n) = (monrate(i, 3 * (j - 2) + 2, n) + monrate(i, 3 * (j - 2) + 3, n) + monrate(i, 3 * (j - 2) + 4, n)) / 333 Next n Next j ' Case 1 For n = 1 To 105 C! annrate(i, k + 1, n) = 0# For m = 1 To 12$[ annrate(i, k + 1, n) = annrate(i, k + 1, n) + monrate(i, 12 * (k - 1) + m + 1, n)  Next m'8 annrate(i, k + 1, n) = annrate(i, k + 1, n) / 12 P Next n C End Select nged v me fro=Extend the last monthly rate to the end of the 50-year period the 4  4     3  calcu   LT)    $Z    +4d   $Z    +4kp ?$8 z /$ 38< \'^'   b't +\RCalc. fractional-year adj. factor if on calendar year basis and proj. month not 12 F D h  D )u@ $\  $Z   +\5 C ficati'^  D n ^ $Z  '^  i ^ D  '^ $\ D   N  P  D   +\k 26Calc. one-year rates for discouting end-of-year values   +8 $ F D +  'v  $8    D $4    +8$H  d    $8    $4    +8 culatek@  $8  +8 annua ng the  'ti 2:ru 3<8 2>` @  X $\ +<'   $"bon e   $"  +:0Read in the surplus values 'H  $<  $8 N  P    +<  $:   $<  +>$H  '@ $> +@  H %Find minimum present value of surplus  $> $@ G  $> +@j  $@ L +@ $Z X T  ive yi  +Xd $@ +Tard     'Rank the scenarios by their C-3 Factors    $T $T $X'Z $X +XG Z +X $T'J $T +T$ J +Tk $ +Z V   +V   BKKT?$X+V *?$X+V KT{Gz?$X+V ${Gz?$X+V Q?$X+V+\{Gz?$X+V? $X+VQ? $X+VJ{Gz? $X+VQ? $X+V ? $X+V {Gz?$X+VqQ?$X+V {Gz?$X+Vsio{Gz?$X+V EnC3Factor$>B@H P+" - Add 2@Display the one-year rates for scen. 1 for illustration purposes $8  +"  , ^+"$RDisplay the C-3 Factors and the weights used to calculate the aggregate C-3 Factor 2%X  +"  +" o numb  V $@  +"ri $V  +"sc er.  !Z  +" B'  $X  +"k@  Sheets("Assumptions").Select$Range("S6:S206").ClearContents$C3Factor$>B@H%Application.Calculation = xlAutomaticnd r!Application.ScreenUpdating = True 8(:'J V we on|H@ 8(: V Handle Esc or Ctrl-Break 0!jG|jError: n 0!p Alo2Attribute VB_Name = "CalcC3" Option Explicit ' Constants needed for random number generatorD Z m1259200, iBa7141c 54773, "r&0.038@580247B2B134456B1 812B 28d41 rm B74373YB343^B &! 5.9rCS MOW Modifica- I xto make minimaHl ms this routine.Merely enoughkeep the running givTen or-e(workbook. Furcleanup =left as an exerciseKe i$ntFstcreDad@k;-)A=Shub ~(mIndexOffstetN0xes one-yeatiC/s8man"A Sc@6 us ,%K@ culC[of C-3 fa csEpDebugOn"FalsB Dim bs@ As Long2()ADouble,@Cnltvar Punif1KbnbC 2 Anorm vghe201moP,quart2 Exte@mdI$Month_36IY@9_, "2n 57.1 O3H prevA+ tf/`N#.:`ut , sq,, l.MA r>t9aI`ni`cor,j'N #!Y) #!g)Dus)RegIntn3Mo20YhGuess`?baa#Co up΋ForwardeI1nos, 0comp+fpt, noyrscprj d['sʐiiUhjkGlGccgDegFr Fa ‹s`PerCo cVerSpacf 1FixErrorFilBcNewEBoof, Badt!dZvs:\\Kialres\iP'e\eQ`s.tmplxowdl c_Tq_t3ST_Too_L ow Outp`utShePmWtscOneAI&Surplu @3) ThpA^' e' a2:es16384` `.ChPn̰f`4ScptnUpd5=@7R'IU6M@alb p`?=0y?= a= UBopund(w$#'u(rp*j,P }t>qD|=& {= (Trub'!COutputSheet = WorksXs("Scenarios") If DebugOn ThenTErrorFilBezFree(`\New6\ Open lName For O As #alse;ApSd;nd If  E ' Ins to generate the interest s~ noyrsn 30@' number of yea&project over prjmod12' fymonthly1'04*V lowdi>Fac$' sԄ equald"True" if \ arlo besd using  +crepancy po?suse_T"F 9CNTtributDioDegd4om@6, dejgsMfplar] Cconst_var{8 D$"i3e(ST - LT) Nas`sumedAIBa Bant ReDim unifran1(1Au, 2@ 2(fI@s@, + 1, 10'annK  @prt * 4?R ltEG)7diff1 U'Du@> s(RegIDnt,3Mo20YrCoup>I@ward$M`T wBvApnpriAxCorrelaAP FactDorZ ca!0.1`Q'  betweln.FHLTaH% ncbL?L@&U0.35U ln(!V ZaW' Supiti@Treasury Yield Curv`'M_3Abp%.Cells(2, 4?63Y4_14fRange("In3") 1)`.ValuAB2 5i65< *778109210!)s(` m)4= A1M i`rt Log()]3'tC(log420-ru41Zi 71cP`4UQO-6.9253 7638#0!0.0038091 ^aa=)gN-p<:@segs?"ynpMF‡poKPMgq: UB)0.25I2C:311Y42536Uz779810)9!2*`` 30!bs`Q`aC` `acR -!4356324992758975@ 511357531585780.8681362419985376`P 0* 649029 .626143914820741544.552208529 14p0884 b0p0267'.4093297962310=92 b 32p0452# 32122330 6218$1102374C3069<146073 'H%?C c)P45a4H%b346`05147 42'Guessːb9022Pb1 pp'419`$0  8980406* i`1 To n&oaDsep= "br+ v(iM)  `lic.StatusB"Aboutgin @ " & iХIndexFix=oEvent"\izeщiables -- Sub (prefeCWlong-]mL, sQ 4Yshortq qZ" , RExp(5fQ/2gOtjp SQQHR0 g=_ B+0R0 3p' O i& a1!p k&`Fo-r j = 1 To numb  ' Generate the uniform randomers on [0,1] needed to producj mthlyftes p diffs If (lowdis) Then|lh1(j, 2)Sheets("LowDisc").Cells(k, i)8B18 + 1 5.364418CD %c < -F*`)-- 2.4_0.347 *3A++ 0.59@ch!>GExp( ` !e%1%ਟ%")%/aP@- 3.12%271%dQ &64`(cor!()a(1^^ (,)!Bconst_FAd"fa11 #4ai5AliprjmodccA2Akq A+ lc g=!' nhmCl-LTq %@yG1(cc*m6q07:?7N0.0048YLog@!0655D))0#0.21&(!H"0105&7 /$*0Gea!p9sq0z `use_TaNs 1a a<+ M ›D )/naca10, V43 / eb- x  5W-= ".2= '0o C("ap@pte " monQ, quarterly,bTɱ us8ingq`thmetic!r"гpezoid" rule.zn'!0nuš, B`:41 n#wdtnm27h1?ai_M#Use regresrs@ e@ѴRfill intQ() yield curv*(k - 1) + 2 To 12 * (k13  monrate(i, j, 9) = ( @+ xH) /t 2~3 ~?3)? 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